Follow the Trendsetters: Recent NFL & MLB Patterns to Watch
Bettors can't always predict who will win or cover the spread, but there are specific tendencies playing out of late.
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Low-Scoring Chiefs, TDs from an Aging QB, and Baltimore Beating Underdogs — No Coincidences Found
On the surface, trends in the NFL appear to be fleeting. What zigs one week zags the next. But many numbers don’t lie. These are just a few of the patterns which have emerged over the past month, several of which you can find on Outliers Insights. Some, in fact, even stretch back to last year.
Beyond the fact that they haven’t lost a game since Christmas, the Kansas City Chiefs find ways to win even when not at peak performance. Their pattern of close victories has come despite trailing after two quarters in each of the first four 2024 contests: down six at home to Cincinnati, a point on the road in Atlanta, and three against the Chargers.
That’s a smaller sample-sized trend, but a larger one can be found in their second half point total. Entering Week 5, the Chiefs’ under went 20-5 since the start of the 2023 season. The Saints game on Monday night only emphasized that pattern. DraftKings had a 12.5 second half total, with the over at -112 and the under at -108. Kansas City posted 10 over the final two periods.
Joe Flacco — bordering on age 40 — has taken over the starting quarterback role for the Indianapolis Colts in Week 4 versus Pittsburgh, playing the whole way this past Sunday against the Jaguars.
This is by no means a “managing the game” strategy — regardless of who he’s doing it for. Winning is one thing, but Flacco has been proficient through the air as well. Adding in the five games in which he manned the Browns offense last year, he is 172-of-274 passing for 2,143 yards, and 18 touchdowns.
Despite Sunday’s loss in Jacksonville, he became just the fourth quarterback in NFL history to have seven consecutive games with two or more touchdown passes at age 38 or older — joining Tom Brady, who did it in 2020 and 2015, Peyton Manning ten years ago, and Warren Moon in 1995.
Flacco’s original team, the Baltimore Ravens, had struggled to protect leads — the Week 4 blowout of the Bills notwithstanding.
Sunday saw them in a different spot — playing from behind in the final quarter. Baltimore took advantage of a shaky Cincinnati defense and poor execution by the Bengals offense down the stretch to pull out a 41-38 overtime victory.
That help to fortify Baltimore’s habit of fulfilling their status as moneyline favorites. Over their last 16 contests in this scenario, the Ravens have lost just three times.
They’re the favorites again in Week 6 when they host Washington, currently at -295 on FanDuel.
There’s always an exception. And for the Commanders, Jayden Daniels is turning around long-standing perceptions around this franchise very quickly.
Washington had been 1-4 against the spread over its previous five home games. The Commanders entered as 3.5-point favorites, and proceeded to pick apart the Cleveland Browns defense en route to a fourth straight victory.
Daniels was not as supremely accurate as he was the previous three games — even throwing his first interception — but he completed the longest TD pass of his young career and rushed for 82 yards. As a team, the Commanders ground attack combined for 211 yards on 31 attempts.
Not only is the team gaining attention and public backing, but Daniels’ stock is rising as well. DraftKings, like other sportsbooks, the clear favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at -230 and his MVP odds are now +1000.
Washington is proof that things can change in a hurry in the NFL — about as fast as Daniels can move his team down the field.
Homer Happy: Dig the Postseason Teams who Hit the Long Ball
There’s no need for a calculator, abacus, accountant, fingers and toes, or any form of counting device to figure out the key to winning — be it in October or any month — is scoring more runs than the opposition. But how teams get those runs has been a crucial element — more so in the postseason.
Since better pitchers are relied upon more heavily at this time of the year, and bullpens used more aggressively, offense naturally goes down. Run scoring goes down and strikeouts go up. Consequently, the share of runs that come in on home runs also increases.
The frequency of a team outhomering its opponent and not winning is low in any case. But if we go back four years, following the brief juiced ball era of 2019, we’ll notice how rare it is at this stage.
In the 2020 postseason, the team with more home runs had a 38-6 record. A year later, they went 29-2. In 2022, those who had the upper hand on home runs were 22-6. And in 2023, they had a 25-4 mark.
How has that pattern held up this October? Not great so far. 6-5 following Monday’s games. Sunday featured a large volume of home runs, but the Mets’ four over the walls couldn’t overcome Philadelphia, while San Diego went on a power surge in Los Angeles.
With eight participants still standing as of Tuesday and several more series left to be played, the teams that went deep most frequently during the regular season might be the clubs which go deep in the postseason: the Yankees (an MLB-best 237), the Dodgers (233), Mets (207), Phillies (198), Padres (190), and Guardians (185) were each among the top half the league home run leaderboard.
One Week of MLB Playoffs in Outlier
68,704 MLB bets were sent to sportsbooks or DFS apps through Outlier between October 1st and October 7th
Users are shying away from game line betting more than normal with 90.3% of bets being on Player Props
Over vs Under Split (Player Props)
78.7% Over
21.3% Unders
Top 5 Player Prop Markets
Hits
Strikeouts
Bases
Singles
H+R+RBI
*Note: This data is based off of betslip checkouts in Outlier. If someone researched a play but did not send it to their sportsbook, that data is not included here.
Creator Corner: The Bottom Live View
Mitch from the The Bottom Line View has built up quite a following over the past decade.
His NFL content is produced with highest quality, plus his original takes and analysis really resonate across Youtube. Give him a follow here.
In the News
Using Cease-and-Desist Letters to Thwart Illegal Gambling Operators — Found on Steve Ruddock’s “Straight to Point” newsletter on Tuesday, states are frequently employing this legal tactic.
NFL Season Causes Increase in Betting Accounts, In-Stadium Wagers — It’s hard to view this as a surprise, but active accounts grew 23% compared to the first four weeks of last season.
The Diminishing Importance of Retail Sportsbooks — At Monday's Global Gaming Expo in Las Vegas, industry officials noted the lessened significance of retail sportsbooks as gaming operators' focus turns increasingly digital.