Issue #18: Keep Your Enemies Closer
The stretch run of the NFL schedule is heavy with games between divisional opponents. How should that factor into betting against the spread?
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Familiarity Breeds Closeness? Some Trends of Division Matchups
We’re at the time of year when much of it is spent with those you know best. The NFL is no different. Lately, its schedule has been structured so that in-division duels are backloaded for late in the season to create uncertainty for postseason berths — including the entirety of the final 16-game slate. For bettors, it’s more imperative to be aware of the potentially deceiving spreads the greater likelihood of favorites being unable to cover.
Such an example was last Thursday, with San Francisco hosting the Los Angeles Rams. The 49ers entered as 2.5-point favorites but lost by six.
That NFC West battle was the lone divisional game on the Week 15 docket. Week 14 featured a thriller between the Packers and Lions, as well as Sunday with Browns-Steelers, Jaguars-Titans, Jets-Dolphins, Seahawks-Cardinals, and Chiefs-Chargers.
The underdog covered four of those six. Miami matched the six-point spread when they took the overtime kickoff and used its lone drive to score a touchdown.
What has occurred thus far in December reflects the trend of this season more so than what has transpired in previous years. For 2024 divisional games, favorites are just 27-39-2 against the spread. However, dating back to 2023, underdogs in December divisional contests are 112-119-6. They do fare better when the line is +3 or shorter: 44-46-2.
Week 16 began with the Denver Broncos getting 2.5 points at SoFi Stadium versus their AFC West rival, but a Chargers second-half surge carried them to a crucial seven-point victory.
As for the six other upcoming matchups, all the spreads are my more than a field goal — including a 14-point margin separating the Bills and Patriots. Even with that two-score difference, much of the public prefers Josh Allen’s team to still cover.
Saturday’s Steelers-Ravens showdown has Baltimore giving 6.5 at home. The uncertainty surrounding the health of George Pickens and T.J. Watt certainly factor into this number. However, seven of the nine meetings this decade have been decided by five points or fewer. The other two were decided by seven.
The other have of the AFC North has the Bengals in another must-win spot hosting Cleveland minus its starters at quarterback and running back. Despite Cincinnati’s overly generous defense, which was on display against Tennessee last Sunday, a good portion of bettors side with Cincy.
The Lions at -6.5 have more than 20 players on injured reserve as they face a Bears team riding an eight-game losing streak. It took an abominable coaching decision by the now ex-Bears coach Matt Eberflus to prevent his old club from beating Detroit on Thanksgiving. But at least that 23-20 final could lead some credence to another tight score.
A significant portion of bettors like the Eagles to win their 11th straight by at least four against Washington. They also expect the total to be under 45.5, just as it was in their Week 11 meeting. With just over eight minutes left in that game, the Commanders were in position to take the lead only to fail on a fourth down and allow Philly to quickly put it out of reach.
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Welcome to December Madness
This weekend is a football fanatic’s delight. On top of high-stakes NFL contests Saturday plus the usual Sunday pro slate, we have the kickoff of the college playoff featuring four quarterfinal games.
Two of them show a rather even split among the public. Only a little more than half like Penn State to cover the 8.5 against SMU and 51 percent like Clemson to come within 11.5 at Texas. There’s also uncertainty with the 51.5-point total.
