Issue #20: Race to the Finish
Josh Allen was once the heavy favorite to win his first MVP, but Lamar Jackson's recent performances have him closing at the end regular season.
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Sizing up the NFL MVP Odds in the Home Stretch
Just when it appeared Josh Allen was the clear frontrunner for the NFL’s Most Valuable Player award, Lamar Jackson made his case on Christmas.
The two-time recipient and defending winner engineered a Ravens offense that confounded the Texans in every way. He passed for 168 yards, ran for 87, and accounted for three touchdowns in a dominant 31-2 victory. Coupled with the Steelers’ loss earlier in the day, Baltimore valued into first place in the NFC North.
Just 10 days earlier, the Buffalo Bills signal-caller — who has yet to win an MVP — was the 9/1 favorite. Jackson was a distant +700. Now, it’s Allen at -190 with Jackson at +140.
Allen’s supremacy was built on leading a Buffalo team that was without many notable skill players at the beginning of the season and later on significant victories — like handing the Chiefs their only defeat and taking down the Detroit Lions in Ford Field. Even prior to Wednesday, Jackson had outpaced his fellow 2018 draft classmate in passing yardage, passing touchdowns, passer rating, and rushing yardage and had two fewer interceptions. Of the major QB categories, Allen is ahead in rushing touchdowns (11 to four).
The Bills’ rise to AFC elite status, along with having the East title locked up by November, coincided with Allen’s strengthening candidacy. The Ravens, who at one point looked to be the conference’s best team, took a step back before regaining momentum in December with key wins over the Steelers and Texans in nationally-televised standalone games.
This type of late-season movement has precedent — and we don’t have to look very far back to find it.
After Week 16 last season, Brock Purdy was a -225 favorite to take the MVP with Jackson at +600. In a head-to-head showdown on Christmas evening in Santa Clara, the Ravens’ QB easily outperformed his 49ers counterpart in the national showcase. In turn, Jackson’s odds moved to -200 while Purdy fell to +1200.
Buffalo faces the Jets on Sunday, which presents an opportunity to take advantage of the player props for Allen that have consistently hit dating back as far as the beginning of the season: passing attempts, completions, longest completion, and rushing yardage just to name a few.
The two remaining Buffalo opponents — New York and New England — have little significance for the Bills thanks to Kansas City having locked up the top seed in the playoffs. But it could present a chance for Allen to remind voters why he’s still the favorite.
Jackson, meanwhile, will bring Baltimore into a home game versus Cleveland. The division title can be won in Week 18 — and maybe something more.
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In the News
Chiefs Bettor Gets $1 million Christmas Gift— Caesars Palace sportsbook in Las Vegas accepted a $1.45 million bet earlier in the week on Kansas City to beat the Pittsburgh Steelers outright.
Crypto.com Enters the Sports Prediction Market — The cryptocurrency exchange brand is stepping into the burgeoning prediction market space, offering U.S. users in a new way to engage with upcoming sporting events.
Happy 78th to the Flamingo Las Vegas — One of the most iconic hotels in Sin City celebrated its birthday on Thursday and has remained a destination for visitors and entertainers for decades.