Issue #21: New Year, New Rules
College football's evolving postseason presents many variables when it comes to handicapping bowl games and playoff matchups.
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Managing the New Era of College Bowl Season
There are 35 bowl games outside of the ones that comprise of the playoff. The process of picking spreads, totals, and props presents a continuously moving target.
It had always been a challenging exercise to determine the outcome of contests between schools from different conferences. That’s been turned up several notches recently thanks to the active transfer portal window, head coaches departing and entering, as well as notable players opting out in order to preserve their health and NFL draft stock.
Another variable is motivation. And the three elements mentioned above collectively figure into that.
It’s hard to say if this contributed to some results, but it’s hard to figure Miami losing by a point to Iowa State in Saturday’s Pop-Tarts Bowl if the Hurricanes had quarterback Cam Ward. A certain top-five pick, Ward chose to sit out the second half with his team up by three. For those who had Miami -3.5, our apologies. For those who had cinnamon roll as the flavor of choice to be consumed by the victorious Cyclones (if such a bet existed), our congratulations.
Motivation is in great supply when it comes to the playoff. Eight teams entered Tuesday with a chance to win the national championship. The first round of the inaugural 12-team tournament was hosted on college campuses. Spreads were wide and spreads were covered by each of the four home teams.
The first two quarterfinals featuring Penn State-Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl on New Year’s Eve and Arizona State-Texas in the Peach Bowl on New Year’s Day each have the higher seeded school as double-digit favorites. But the two other contests each have margins of less than a field goal.
Oregon comes into the Rose Bowl unbeaten and yet 2.5-point underdogs against a conference opponent it defeated at home by one on October 12. The Ducks are 6-2 against the spread in their last eight games, while the Buckeyes are 4-1 in their previous five versus top-25 defenses (Oregon is 12th in scoring D).
Despite the 32-31 result in Eugene, the point total sits at 55.5 as both programs have been exceptional at stopping the opposing offenses. In fact, OSU is the nation’s best in several defensive categories.
The Sugar Bowl presents plenty of intrigue. Notre Dame hasn’t been beaten since it was upset by Northern Illinois in South Bend on September 7. The Fighting Irish are facing a Georgia Bulldog program with championship pedigree. However, two-time national champion Kirby Smart will have Gunner Stockton at quarterback in place of Carson Beck. Meanwhile, the favored Irish are going without some starting defensive lineman against a Georgia rushing attack that’s just 100th best in the country.
Notre Dame’s injuries notwithstanding, the over/under on total points considers this to be low-scoring. In the last seven Georgia games against top-25 scoring defenses, the under has hit in five of them.
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