Issue #26: Rest Your Case
What does history suggest might happen for the Lions and Chiefs as they begin their playoff run?
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How Much Bye-in for the NFL’s Top Teams?
Playoff expansion five years ago has meant only teams with the best record in each conference earn a free pass through the wild card round. Nobody would trade the opportunity for week off, but what is the success rate for teams when facing opponents coming off a playoff win?
Looking at recent history as it pertains to the current postseason format, the top seeds are 4-4 versus the spread in the divisional round. In each season, one team covered and the other failed to cover. In last year’s postseason, the Ravens pulled away to an easy win over Houston while the 49ers squeaked by the Packers as Green Bay Packers kept it within a field goal. The year before, both the Eagles and Chiefs advanced but the Jacksonville Jaguars covered the nine-point spread at Arrowhead.
Let’s expand this out over the past two decades, dating back to when there were two byes in each conference. From the 2005 through 2019 playoffs, teams playing in the divisional round who had skipped the wild card round went 28-32 against the spread.
Only three times in that 15-year span did the bye week teams have a winning record in this scenario. Never did all four teams cover on Divisional weekend. There are three instances in which the home team went 1-3 ATS. And in 2006, they went 0-4.
A lesson to be taken is there may be some validity behind rust as opposed to rest, especially when it comes to games being more competitive than the sportsbooks initially set them. Beware Detroit and Kansas City?
For the Lions, they’ll hear nothing of it. Every week off is essential at this stage considering the injuries that still riddle the roster. As the Washington Commanders ceom in with their dynamic rookie quarterback, the public is essentially split on the 9.5-point margin. However, a strong majority likes Detroit on the moneyline. The Lions have covered big numbers this season, but that was against inferior opponents like Jacksonville and Tennessee.
As for the Chiefs — three wins from a three-peat — this is a very familiar situation. It’s the sixth time since the 2016 season that Kansas City is in the divisional round off a playoff bye. Giving 8.5 points versus the Texans is too much for 56 percent of bettors who might be aware of the Chiefs’ penchant for close victories. In fact, K.C. has failed to cover any spread of seven or more this season. The moneyline percentages shows how strongly bettors feel about that.
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The Baddest of Beats
If you didn’t see what took place at the end of Tuesday night’s matchup between North Texas and East Carolina, you should. If for some reason you had the under in this game, you probably don’t.
To set the stage before watching this video, the point total was 128.5. There’s no audio and the camera work at the end doesn’t capture the final moments — which only adds to the cruelty or hilarity, depending on your perspective.
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