Issue #27: Let's Do it Live
Evolving game lines create a challenging, yet opportunistic, betting option. We'll show you why.
Welcome back to the UndersClub newsletter, brought to you by Outlier.
The UndersClub is the newsletter where we share data-backed analysis and editorial, special guest insights, and sneak peaks into the future of data driven sports betting.
This newsletter will always be free, and 100% our opinion. If you care to use Outlier to do your own research, you can start a free 7 day trial here.
Riding the Live Game Line Roller Coaster
There are movements in the betting markets before every game — because of injuries, changes in the weather, or public leanings. Once it begins…that’s a whole other animal. We followed each of the divisional matchups on three top sportsbooks — DraftKings, FanDuel, and bet365 — to show how the game line, moneyline, and point total shift over the course of a game.
Texans at Chiefs
13:58, 1st Quarter: Kansas City takes the opening kick into Houston territory, fumbles, recovers, and gets a personal foul call to advance further. It doesn’t make progress on offense and gets an early field goal. FanDuel bumps the Chiefs’ line to -10.5 while DraftKings and bet365 had it at -9.5. The total stayed the same.
End of 1st Quarter: Both teams trade field goals and the Chiefs end the opening period with a 6-3 lead. DraftKings and bet365 drop the game total to 39.5. FanDuel has it at 40.5.
4:36, 2nd Quarter: Kansas City scores first with a short run by Kareem Hunt. The Chiefs' line is now -12.5 and their moneyline is -1400 on bet365. To take the Texans at this point would be +750.
0:16, 2nd Quarter: As halftime approaches and it stays 13-6, the line falls to Kansas City by 7.5 on FanDuel and bet365 and 8.5 on DraftKings. The total slips to 38.5 on all three sportsbooks.
4:36, 3rd Quarter: The Texans open the second half with a 15-play drive that takes more than 10 minutes and finishes in the end zone. A missed extra point keeps it a 13-12 game in favor of K.C., which is now a 3.5 to 4.5-point favorite.
End of 3rd Quarter: The score has not changed, and the low-scoring affair is reflected in the total — which is as small as 35.5 on bet365 and DraftKings.
9:59, 4th Quarter: Shortly after Patrick Mahomes finds Travis Kelce for a TD while being dragged to the turf, Houston is unable to respond. Its rushed fourth-down play ends in a sack. The line for Kansas City goes up to 10.5 with a 39.5 point total. Anyone brave enough to believe in a Texans comeback can get them at +2200.
0:11, 4th Quarter: The last minute and a half is a wild ride for some pregame bettors who took Kansas City -9.5. The Chiefs sack C.J. Stroud and force a field goal attempt that’s blocked. Mahomes and company kill some clock until fourth down. Punter Matt Araiza runs some more time off before running out of bounds in the end zone for a safety. Holy bad beat.
Commanders at Lions
7:36, 1st Quarter: Lions strike first and their spread increases to 10.5 on DraftKings and bet365. FanDuel and bet365 take the total up to 55.5. Prepare for liftoff.
10:55, 2nd Quarter: The first of five Detroit turnovers turns into a Washington lead. A long pass from Jayden Daniels to Dyami Brown sets up a Brian Robinson Jr. touchdown run. A 10-7 Commanders lead, but still -3.5 Detroit. Washington is at +172 on the moneyline. The over/under on the game total is as high as 57.5 on FanDuel.
7:44, 2nd Quarter: A quick response for Detroit. The total rises to 61.5 on bet365 after Sam LaPorta’s diving one-handed grab gives the lead back to the Lions.
6:23, 2nd Quarter: A quicker response for Washington. Terry McLaurin made a 58-yard scoring grab. The Lions are back to -3.5 and the total soars to 67.5.
5:25, 2nd Quarter: The line flips to the Commanders -2.5 on a pick-six of Jared Goff, who briefly exits. Washington is -184 to bet on an outright win with Detroit at +142.
1:46, 2nd Quarter: Arcade-level scoring continues. Each team trades touchdowns to make it 31-21 Washington before the half and brings the game total to its highest point of the night. DraftKings and bet365 have it at 86.5 with a 1.5 to 2.5-point line in favor of the Commanders. That number gets to -3.5 at halftime as a late Detroit drive ends in another Goff interception in the end zone.
6:57, 3rd Quarter: Momentum is back with the Lions. They stop Washington on its first drive and get a touchdown on theirs. Detroit -1.5 is on FanDuel and DraftKings and -2.5 at bet365. The original game total officially goes over.
13:29, 4th Quarter: On the doorstep of another score, the books give them a -2.5-point edge at the end of the third period. It gets bumped by a full point (with the moneyline at -430) as Robinson tallies his second TD to cap an 8:28 drive.
7:31, 4th Quarter: The Commanders effectively put Detroit away at 45-28. The total goes up to 80.5 (which it doesn’t hit), but anyone who took Washington -10.5 at this time would’ve won.
Rams at Eagles
11:55, 1st Quarter: Jalen Hurts broke a tackle and ran 44 yards for a touchdown (with a missed XP). This made Philadelphia’s line -10.5 on DraftKings and -9.5 elsewhere.
The game total rises to 48.5 on FanDuel and bet365.
6:32, 1st Quarter: Los Angeles responds with a 13-play march and takes a one-point lead. It’s now Eagles -5.5 across the board and a 50.5 total on FanDuel.
End of 1st Quarter: As the snow begins to fall, Saquon Barkley runs wild on the Rams — this one for 62 yards as a TD. But Matthew Stafford hit a long pass to get L.A. past midfield and bring the line to Eagles -6.5 and the total to 54.5.
4:30, 2nd Quarter: Up 13-10, Philadelphia is pinned deep in its own territory before a screen pass to Barkley gets a first down. The Eagles are a 5.5-point favorite with the total as low as 46.5. The score held, dropping the total to 42.5 at halftime.
7:37 3rd Quarter: A 34-yard field goal knots it up and makes Philly a 3.5-point favorite on all three books. The Rams on the moneyline are as low as +196 and the total is as small as 40.5.
End of 3rd Quarter: The winter conditions slow both offenses. A safety with 26 seconds left closes the Eagles’ lead to 16-15 and the line to -1.5.
6:18, 4th Quarter: Two Los Angeles fumbles result in two Philadelphia field goals. FanDuel and DraftKings bump up the Eagles’ line to -6.5 with a 39.5 over/under.
2:28, 4th Quarter: Saquon Barkley’s 78-yard dash through the flakes seems to make Philly a lock for victory. But the Rams respond. A fast TD drive and a defensive stop puts them in position to complete a comeback. They are +5.5 on DraftKings and +470 on the moneyline at bet365.
The Rams’ rally falls short — but its a cover for many who took Los Angeles at +6.5.
Ravens at Bills
10:40, 1st Quarter: Baltimore gets on the board first with a Lamar Jackson TD connection with Rashod Bateman. The numbers increase to -4.5 and 54.5 on bet365 and -3.5 and 55.5 on FanDuel and DraftKings.
End of the 1st Quarter: Buffalo evens the score and closes the line to Ravens -2.5 on DraftKings, while bet365 and FanDuel bring it back to -1.5. The total stays the same.
8:49, 2nd Quarter: A Jackson fumble and long return set the Bills up to extend their lead. A 14-7 Buffalo advantage makes them the new favorite at -3.5.
Halftime: The Bills’ lead is 21-10 at the break. Both the spread and the total are as high as they’ve been all game at -7.5 and 55.5, respectively. Buffalo is -460 on the moneyline.
9:47, 3rd Quarter: Justin Tucker makes a 47-yard field goal to close the gap and change the line to Bills -5.5 while the O/U is stable.
1:37, 3rd Quarter: Baltimore closes further. Derrick Henry runs for a TD, but no two-point conversion. Buffalo remains the slight favorite at -1.5 on FanDuel and bet365 while the game total hasn’t moved much.
12:04, 4th Quarter: A Buffalo field goal keeps the Ravens in striking distance at 24-19. Still no change in the total or spread, but taking Baltimore to win outright on FanDuel is +132.
3:29, 4th Quarter: Buffalo extends the lead to eight with another field goal. The spread continues to stabilize at -5.5 and the total is 51.5. The Ravens on the moneyline are now +560 on FanDuel and +600 on bet365.
The game time over hits when Jackson connects with Isaiah Likely in the end zone with 1:33 left. Baltimore still needs two points to tie…which they can’t get. A brutal defeat for the Ravens and the bettors who took them.
Help Us with a Short Survey
If you enjoy The UndersClub Substack, it would mean the world to us completed this 2 minute survey. We’ll choose 1 respondent to get Outlier free for 3 months!
Refer Friends, Earn Rewards
Help us spread the word about the UndersClub! We’ll send you awesome merch and free months to your Outlier subscription!