Issue #28: Narratives of Choice
Championship Sunday is almost here and all four teams have a case to reach the Super Bowl. We present some insights that support them.
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Bayou Bound? The Remaining Teams Could be if These Trends Hold Up
At this stage of the NFL season, patterns that translate to success can sometimes be conflicting. At this stage of the NFL season, patterns that translate to success can sometimes be conflicting. Here are a few, though, which stand out as potential indicators for conference championship success and possible Super Bowl pathways.
Philadelphia Eagles
They are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 games as a favorite: Sunday's six-point divisional round win over the Rams might be an exception. They were giving 6.5 to 7 points, but the weather affected it. That being said, both teams had to deal with the snow. Nevertheless, the previous three contests against the Packers, Giants, and Cowboys all covered the number. The other wins came versus Pittsburgh, the Rams, Dallas again, and a Thursday night victory over the Commanders in mid-November.
Jalen Hurts has failed to exceed 181.5 passing yards in 6 of his last 7 games: The exception here is valid. Not only have the Eagles won six of seven, the last Philadelphia loss came in Landover, when Hurts exited with a concussion. There’s a very real possibility Hurts is compromised, but that doesn’t necessarily mean Philadelphia will lose — thanks to Saquon Barkley, who is capable of breaking a huge run with every carry. It’s certain the 2,000-yard back will once again be significantly used against a weak run defense.
Washington Commanders
Jayden Daniels has exceeded 1.5 passing touchdowns in 7 of his last 8 games: Washington hasn’t been beaten since November. Success for its rookie quarterback bodes well for the Commanders. Among Daniels’ exceptional performances of late happened in late December when he threw for five TDs on an Eagles defense that has improved greatly since the beginning of the season.
The over has hit 11 times during the 2024 regular season and postseason: A 47.5 game total seems pedestrian when you consider the Commanders and Lions went past this before halftime last Saturday. Philadelphia presents a bit more resistance than Detroit and the outdoors could slow Washington down too. Of those 11 instances of over, the Commanders have won in seven.
Buffalo Bills
They are 8-4 in their last 12 games on the road: Arrowhead Stadium is a much different environment than just about any other in the NFL. Arrowhead Stadium in the postseason ratchets the difficulty even more. However, winning nearly 70 percent of games outside Buffalo is something to be taken seriously. Excluding a finale in Foxboro involving backups, the Bills' last four road wins came at Detroit, Indianapolis, Seattle, and the Jets.
They are 10-4 (71.4%) against the spread in their last 14 games: With a 1.5-point margin that favors the Chiefs, taking the Bills is essentially choosing them to win outright. Again removing the January 5th Patriots’ game from the equation, the Bills have won ATS in seven of nine in which Josh Allen and the starters played — including both playoff games and the regular season wins over the Lions and Chiefs.
Kansas City Chiefs
Travis Kelce has exceeded 69.5 receiving yards in each of his last 14 postseason games: The Chiefs' success goes hand-in-hand with that of their future Hall of Fame tight end. Disregard the fact he’s had under 70 yards receiving in seven of the last eight regular season games. Kelce habitually shows up in the playoffs, which quite often is crucial to Kansas City’ fortunes.
Patrick Mahomes has exceeded 249.5 passing yards in 5 of his last 6 games vs. bottom 10 passing defenses: Both playoff matchups thus far have been against relatively stronger teams versus the pass. Mahomes’ 283.0 yards/game average in this sample size spans the opener versus Baltimore through the Christmas Day encounter in Pittsburgh. The lone exception? November 17 at Buffalo in the Chiefs’ first defeat of the season. But as we’ve all become accustomed to, playoff games in Kansas City with this team are different.
Philadelphia Eagles
They are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 games as a favorite: Sunday’s six-point divisional round victory over the Rams — in which they were giving anywhere from 6.5 to 7 — might constitute as an exception because of the weather conditions, although both teams had to deal with the snow. Nevertheless, the previous three contests versus the Packers, Giants, and Cowboys all covered the number. The other wins came against Pittsburgh, the Rams, Dallas again, and a Thursday night victory over the Commanders in mid-November.
Jalen Hurts has failed to exceed 181.5 passing yards in 6 of his last 7 games: The exception here is more valid. Not only have the Eagles won six of seven, the last Philadelphia loss came in Landover, when Hurts exited early with a concussion. Taking this sample size out further, you’ll see a three-game stretch in which he threw for at least 200 in each — including a win over Washington.
Washington Commanders
Jayden Daniels has exceeded 1.5 passing touchdowns in 7 of his last 8 games: Washington hasn’t been beaten since November, meaning success for its rookie quarterback bodes well for the Commanders. Among Daniels’ exceptional performances of late happened in late December when he threw for five TDs on an Eagles defense that has improved greatly since the beginning of the season.
The over has hit 11 times during the 2024 regular season and postseason: A 47.5 game total seems pedestrian when you consider the Commanders and Lions went past this before halftime last weekend. Philadelphia presents a bit more resistance than Detroit and the outdoors could slow Washington down too. Of those 11 instances of over, the Commanders have won in seven.
Buffalo Bills
They are 8-4 in their last 12 games on the road: Arrowhead Stadium is a much different environment than just about any other in the NFL. Arrowhead Stadium in the postseason ratchets the difficulty even more. However, winning nearly 70 percent of games outside Buffalo is something to be taken seriously. Taking out the regular season finale in Foxboro (played by backups), the Bills last four road victories came at Detroit, Indianapolis, Seattle, and the Jets.
They are 10-4 (71.4%) against the spread in their last 14 games: With a 1.5-point margin that favors the Chiefs, taking the Bills in this situation is essentially choosing them to win outright. Again taking the January 5th Patriots’ game out of the equation, the Bills have won ATS in seven of nine games in which Josh Allen and the starters have played — including both playoff games and the regular season wins over the Lions and Chiefs.
Kansas City Chiefs
Travis Kelce has exceeded 69.5 receiving yards in each of his last 14 postseason games: The well-known success of the Chiefs goes hand-in-hand with the success of their future Hall of Fame tight end. Disregard the fact he’s had under 70 yards receiving in seven of the last eight regular season games. Kelce habitually shows up in the playoffs, which quite often is crucial to Kansas City’ fortunes.
Patrick Mahomes has exceeded 249.5 passing yards in 5 of his last 6 games vs. bottom 10 passing defenses: Both of the playoff matchups thus far have been against relatively stronger teams versus the pass. Mahomes’ 283.0 passing yards/game average in this sample size spans the opener versus Baltimore through the Christmas Day encounter in Pittsburgh. The lone exception? November 17 at Buffalo in the Chiefs’ first defeat of the season. But as we’ve all become accustomed to, playoff games in Kansas City with this team are different.
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