Issue #29: Jump on It?
Some Super Bowl markets are best to take advantage of as quickly as possible. For others, patience can pay off
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To Bet or Not to Bet (Yet)? How to Prioritize Your Super Bowl Wagering
As soon as the conference championships end, the Super Bowl hype truly begins. No sporting event gets more betting action and because of that, the initial betting markets are prime opportunities to pounce. In other cases, it’s best to wait it out.
Point Spread
In this rematch of two years ago, the Chiefs opened as 1.5-point favorites on the Eagles across most major sportsbooks. Initial public sentiment showed it was placing more bets and money on Kansas City to three-peat.
The team that got early action on the spread has covered in 11 of the last 15 Super Bowls. Most sharp bettors believe the best time to act is within a few hours after the odds open. The reasoning is that bookmakers quickly adjust the spread based on early wagers.
If you haven’t put any money on it yet, don’t worry. There is likely to be movement and paying close attention to those changes — and which books make them — will be crucial.
Last year’s Super Bowl line began with the 49ers -2.5. In the next two weeks, the number shrunk to around a point before going back up and settling at San Francisco -2. The main reason was that a majority sided with Kansas City — and wound up being correct.
Moneyline
For a game with many casual bettors, the moneyline is where they turn.
That segment often likes the underdog. A solid return is tempting. So, it draws a lot of bets closer to kickoff. That's when most bets come in. This, in turn, can bring the favorite’s price down. So, it makes sense to bet on the underdog early. Then, wait until Super Bowl weekend or the day of the game.
The 49ers got -130 odds to win Super Bowl XLVIII at the open. As more money went to the Chiefs, San Francisco closed at -120 at most sportsbooks.
The numbers are close again this year. Kansas City’s lowest number is -124 on FanDuel and the Eagles’ best odds are +110 on DraftKings.
Game Total
The betting value here — much like the spread — is more favorable early on. Once sharp bettors shape the market going forward, it can be more difficult to get the optimal price.
A saving grace is the number of casual bettors for this kind of game. And the vast number of those largely outnumber the professionals.
Let’s take the current over/under of 49.5 for February 9 at the Superdome. We’re seeing 85 percent go for the over and there’s a possibility it stays that way. Many recreational fans prefer to root for points, for fun and profit.
Last year, the total got bet down from 48 early on. It went back up during the week from public input. Then, it returned closer to the original number as sharps went heavy on the under. It eventually settled on 47.5 at kickoff.
Player/Game Props
“Will there be overtime?” “Will there be a defensive touchdown?” “Will there be a safety?”
These “Yes/No” prop bets are ideal to lock in as game time nears. The "Yes" option on those props offers larger returns. Its slim chance of success draws in casual betting money hoping to turn a small bet into a major payout.
Therefore, that popularity can lower the cost of the "No" on those sorts of props. But even then, the discounted odds are still too expensive for most to get involved.
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