Issue #30: Better Know Ball
From boards and dishes to spotting bounce-back opportunities, we present strategies that can help you wager wiser as this NBA season unfolds
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Make Hardwood Betting Easier
Coming off a tough defeat at home to Houston, the Boston Celtics hosted the Bulls on Wednesday. Chicago, meanwhile, was riding the high of a 129-121 victory over Denver.
The scenario is appealing for Boston, a 14.5-point favorite, and for bettors who like the defending champions. It’s an opportunity for the Celtics to amend the recent setback — otherwise known as a “get-right spot.” It's a chance to back a team eager to win big. They're up against a team that feels good about beating the Nuggets.
All the ingredients were there for a cementing of Celtic superiority and a return to earth for Chicago.
That’s exactly what happened.
Boston pulled away from the Bulls in the second quarter — taking a 16-point advantage into halftime on its way to a 122-100 victory.
With all betting options, none are perfect. But it’s good to know the parameters that can create a potential advantage in certain markets.
Another that fits this description is a player combo that’s among the most popular of its kind. Rebound + Assist props are betting on how a player will do on the boards and facilitate his teammates on offense.
What makes it more foolproof than anything else tied to point totals is that scoring results don't affect that statistic. In other words, rebounding and passing are unaffected by a poor shooting night.
As with any player prop, know the matchup, player usage, lineups, and any injury or load management concerns before betting. Understanding trends and the opposition must be taken into account and can certainly affect the likelihood of an over.
Let’s use Wednesday night’s Clippers-Spurs game as an example. Harrison Barnes has been getting at least six combined rebounds and assists with regularity. He did it again versus the Clippers. Kawhi Leonard was going above 6.5 for much of this season and did so in each of L.A.’s previous meetings with San Antonio. In a 128-116 Clippers victory, Leonard tallied six boards and seven dimes.
Thursday night featured a matchup of two top teams in the Western Conference: Memphis and Houston. With Ja Morant sitting out, the Grizzlies’ Desmond Bane almost went over his 9.5 rebound + assist number in the first half alone. He maintained a 20-plus game stretch in which he has combined for 10 or more at a 75 percent rate.
Nikola Jokić failed to exceed the 22.5 number set before Denver's game with the Knicks at Madison Square Garden earlier this week. He had done so in seven of his past 10 games. But, early foul trouble and missing most of the first half caused that over to not hit.
While Jokić was never a doubt for the All-Star Team, others missed out when the reserves were announced Thursday. Those feeling they had a case will have a tad more motivation in the coming games. As the first half of the season wraps up, players like Domantas Sabonis, Trae Young, Devin Booker, LaMelo Ball, and Jarrett Allen might want to show why they should have been All-Stars.
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As the Lines Move
The shift in Super Bowl markets is minimal up to this point. The 1.5 points given to Kansas City have yet to change and the price attached to the Chiefs and Eagles on the spread has been rather stable.
The moneyline has gone back-and-forth between -130 and -128 on Kansas City and switched from +109 and +110 on Philadelphia.
As for the game total, which opened at 48.5 on BetMGM, it quickly jumped up to 49.5 and is now at 50 on some books — thanks to a heavy dose of public money on the over.
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