Issue #32: With the Benefit of History
With so many bets available for the Super Bowl, the challenge of determining which ones makes the most sense can be aided by patterns from the recent past
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History suggests Sunday’s game won’t be over by halftime. That’s because only four of the past 14 Super Bowls have been decided by more than ten points. That’s lovely for the neutral and casual observers without any stake in the fortunes of the Chiefs and Eagles.
But what do bettors have to hold on to? What patterns have emerged – both from Super Bowl history and the recent history of these teams – that can be applied to the myriad of available markets? We’ve presented some evidence to take either side of the line along with other miscellaneous bets that fit nicely into recent trends.
Kansas City -1.5
Only seven times in Super Bowl history has a favorite won and not covered
In other words: if you like Kansas City to win outright, it might serve you best (and be of better value) to take them with the slim margin of points. Only once has there been a game decided by a single point (Giants over Bills in 1991). In the 58 previous Super Bowls, the favorite is 36-22 straight up.
In the last 22 Super Bowls, teams with more points per game during the season are 7-14-1 against the spread
Philadelphia averaged 27.2 points– seventh best in the NFL. Kansas City was more than four points a game worse and ranked 15th. Last year’s version of the Chiefs was more than seven points lower than the San Francisco 49ers, who was the league’s highest-scoring team.
Since Super Bowl XXXIX, teams with more rushing yards per game are 5-15 ATS
In fact, offenses that averaged more yards per rush are 7-13 versus the spread in that same span. The Saquon Barkley-led rushing attack of the Eagles, not surprisingly, owns significant edges in both categories.
Over the previous 13 Super Bowls, teams with more regular season yardage is 2-11 straight up and 1-12 ATS
The Eagles racked up 6,565 yards in their 17 games while the Chiefs had 5,836 yards of total offense. Philadelphia also was better in terms of yards per play, and teams with that advantage have prevailed in just 15 percent of the last 13 games.
Patrick Mahomes is 8-0 against the spread in his career in the postseason as a favorite of under a FG or an underdog
He’s also won all eight games outright. Mahomes has had a lot of success against Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. According to The Action Network, Fangio-coached defenses have faced Mahomes eight times — six with the Broncos, twice with the Dolphins – and Mahomes is 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS.
Chiefs are 64-7 SU (90%) since 2018 when leading after the first quarter
This, according to The Action Network, is the best winning percentage for any NFL team. They have won 29 straight games over the last three seasons when leading after the opening period, and their last loss in that situation came back in the 2022 AFC Championship Game.
Philadelphia +1.5
Teams with the better record going into the Super Bowl has lost 12 of the last 14 and is 1-16 ATS in last 17
It’s hard to consider 14-3 as being “worse,” but this stat is proof the regular season records are no indication of overall strength in the wake of a postseason run. Recent history proves that level of parity within the NFL and Super Bowl, because the all-time mark for the better team by win-loss record is well above .500.
In the last 28 Super Bowls, the higher-seeded team during the playoffs is 2-16-2 ATS
This accounts for eight games with equal-seeded matchups. But it’s in play for Sunday, as Kansas City was the top seed in the AFC while Philadelphia was the No. 2 NFC club. Like the previous trend on record, this is also a confirmation of how well a team is doing of late more than the body of work from Week 1.
Underdogs are 17-6 ATS in the last 23 years and 13-4 ATS in the last 17.
The Eagles were the victims of this trend a couple years ago against the Chiefs. Now they could benefit from it if things go well. Kansas City has pulled off outright upsets against Philly and San Francisco as 1.5-point underdogs in each.
Teams that outrush their opponent in the Super Bowl are 43-15 outright
This is projection based on the Eagles’ game plan and a year-long domination of the ground. It would be hard to imagine Philadelphia – with Barkley, and Jalen Hurts – losing the rushing battle on Sunday. And if they do, it’s likely they lose the game too. The Eagles yielded 104.18 opponent rushing yards per game during the regular season. Over the course of the postseason, Philly has out-gained its three opponents 683-317.
Over the last 23 Super Bowls, teams which have more total passing yardage during the regular season are 9-14 ATS
Just as the Eagles have dominated the ground over the course of the year, they have left plenty to be desired in their passing game. But that may not be a bad thing if Super Bowl history tells us anything. Kansas City is 34 yards per game better than Philadelphia through the air.
Teams allowing fewer points per game during the season are 7-2 ATS over the past nine games
Adding more strength to this point is that they are 8-1 straight up. The Eagles allowed 17.8 points per game during the regular season, while the Chiefs defense yielded a 19.2 average.
Eagles +7.5
In the last 23 Super Bowls, underdogs in six-point teasers are 20-3 ATS
During that same period, favorites on the six-point teaser are just 13-10 outright – a product of close Super Bowl games we touched on in the beginning. And what has been a theme of the season should be brought up again: Kansas City’s penchant for close games and not covering. Plus, the Chiefs’ last two Super Bowl victories were by three and six points, respectively.
Patrick Mahomes (+110) or Jalen Hurts (+350) MVP
Quarterbacks have earned this honor 33 times and 11 times in the last 15 games
The only other positions that have won it during that span are wide receivers or linebackers. Those motivated to bet on Saquon Barkley (+240), who has the second-best odds to Mahomes, are going against history. Not since Super Bowl XXXII and Terrell Davis has a running back been MVP. It is the first time since 2003 that a position other than QB has been listed in the top two in Super Bowl MVP odds, according to The Action Network.
Either Team Scoring an Offensive Touchdown on their Opening Drive: No (-130)
Only twice in the last 15 Super Bowls has a team scored a TD on the opening possession
While everything points to betting against either side getting into the end zone on their first time with the ball, there is a counter to it. The only two instances in which this happened were two years ago when the Eagles and Chiefs traded touchdowns to start Super Bowl LVII.
Under 48.5
Five of the past six Super Bowls have gone under
By just a half-point, despite 34 of the 47 points scored after the second quarter, Super Bowl LVIII maintained this trend. If you want to examine the Super Bowl entirely (not counting the first since there wasn’t a total posted for the first game between Green Bay and Kansas City), you’d find that it’s an even split: 28 overs, 28 unders and one push. But in the last two decades, with an average pregame line of 49.9, there have been 47.7 points per game scored with twelve of those games going below the total.
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