Issue #33: What are the Odds?
The surprising Super Bowl result yielded a range of prop bet outcomes. Plus, the initial impacts of the NBA trade deadline
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A Postmortem of Super Bowl Props
The Eagles weren’t the only big winners on Sunday. While some seemingly “Big Easy” player prop bets failed to go over, like Saquon Barkley rushing yards and Travis Kelce receiving yards, others managed to hit. And some of the Super-sized long odds did as well.
Jalen Hurts Anytime Touchdown (-120, DraftKings)
His MVP performance included the game’s first score, although it initially appeared to be for Jahan Dotson. A beautiful Hurts pass was hauled in by the wide out before he fell into the end zone. However, replay showed he was just short. A Dotson anytime TD was +1700 on FanDuel. A Dotson first TD scorer was as high as +8500. Far more expected was Hurts tush-pushing his way past the goal line on the next play.
Patrick Mahomes Over 255.5 Passing Yards (-110, bet365)
This was a terrible beat for some and a gift from the betting gods for others. By halftime, Mahomes had only 33 passing yards and two costly interceptions. The Chiefs offense hadn’t even reached Philadelphia’s territory. The three-time Super Bowl MVP accumulated yards after the game had virtually been decided, but he changed the fortunes of the people who wagered on this prop — especially with a long-distance connection in the final minutes.
Xavier Worthy Over 56.5 Receiving Yards (-115, Caesars)
Almost all of this came on one catch — and it happened to be the last Kansas City offensive play of the night. The 50-yard garbage time bomb from Mahomes, which made the final deficit slightly more palatable. Worthy not only obliterated his prop, he set a Super Bowl rookie receiving record — part of an eight-catch, two TD performance.
Kenny Pickett to Take a Snap (+880, FanDuel)
There were only two logical reasons for someone (outside of the Pickett family) to go here: an injury to Hurts or a lopsided game. Congrats to those who put any sum of money on this.
Hurts Most Valuable Player (+375, BetMGM)
The domination of the quarterback continues. Make it 13 of the last 18 years that a QB has been MVP. Aside from being picked off in the red zone on an errant second-quarter pass, Hurts was relatively flawless in his decision-making.
The Eagles' defense troubled Mahomes. They recorded six sacks, a pick-six by Cooper DeJean, and another interception by Zack Baun. Still, the usual choice for this honor is the quarterback.
Gatorade Bath Color: Lime/Green/Yellow (+110, DraftKings)
No three-peat for purple! The color of drink doused on Andy Reid in each of the last two Chiefs’ victories took an ‘L’ too. Nick Sirianni got drenched in yellow, which had moved up to the favorite by kickoff.
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Early Effect of NBA Deals on Markets
Trade winds were strong last week as a number of big names were sent to new teams. No trade was more surprising or important than Luka Dončić moving from the Mavericks to the Lakers. At the same time, Anthony Davis headed to Dallas. The reason for his departure from Texas may serve as motivation and an uptick in stat totals. His debut Monday yielded an over/under points + assists line of 26.5 (something he had done in five of his prior eight games).
The futures for the Lakers and Mavs look different. L.A.'s odds on DraftKings jumped from +2200 to +700. Meanwhile, Dallas has stayed steady at +1900 to +1600. But Davis's recent injury could change things.
The Cavaliers aimed to bolster their defense with the pickup of De’Andre Hunter from Atlanta. While his skills won’t be reflected in any player props, they may influence opponents’ point totals.
Victor Wembanyama gained a new running mate in San Antonio, as D’Aaron Fox came over from Sacramento. Fox averages a little more than six assists per game and the presence of a 7’3” unicorn might open up opportunities to increase that average.