Issue #34: Don't Get Schooled
The NFL is over and the NBA and NHL are on prolonged All-Star breaks. Time to give the college kids their shot.
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How to Evaluate College Basketball Markets
Following the natural process of the calendar, mid-February seems the proper occasion to look toward March. Before the madness starts, take this chance to see what makes college hoops unique compared to the pros.
Offensive and Defensive Efficiency
Ken Pomeroy is the godfather of college basketball analytics. He’s so well regarded in the sports, he simply goes by KenPom. His rating system is a terrific way to cross-examine potential wagers — both for scoring or stopping the opposition. The site has an established reputation and has been able to track and sort data within individual seasons and also on a historical basis. There are plenty of others, but his is the gold standard.
All provide useful benchmarks for assessing team performance in key areas. This includes stats like points per possession. It also includes weighted evaluations of both offensive and defensive efficiencies.
The ability to get to the free throw line, success from the free throw line, and three-point success holds more weight on this level due to his variance between a larger group of teams. The same holds true on how well teams limit their opponents from the field.
Four Factors
Shooting, free throws, rebounding, and turnovers. A good team from three may be substandard inside the arc. Therefore, there’s more volatility overall and an bad night from long range could spell defeat. Defensively, teams without size up front can be vulnerable close to the basket.
Getting to the foul line and converting can carry a team to victory or be the reason for a loss. As mentioned before, all forms of shooting carry a bit more weight in college due to added deviation (as compared to the NBA or WNBA).
As for rebounding, the key statistic to look for is percentage — especially on defense. Relatively low proficiency on the glass creates extra possessions for the other side. Defensive rebounds are deceiving if too many offensive boards are allowed.
Like in any sport, the turnover difference — and how well a club takes advantage of turnovers — is tremendously significant. This definitely comes into play depending on the home court and how that can restrain the visitors and boost the host school.
Home Teams & Public Darlings
Generally, there is a more significant home-court advantage in college. Younger players can be more affected by large crowds and unfamiliar environments. The odds don’t always reflect this, giving you an opportunity to find value during the regular season.
Casual bettors love to jump on the traditional powerhouses and disregard proper analysis. There’s value, too, in the lesser-known opponents that are having strong seasons and if money is going one way, it can alter the line to your liking.
Coaching Edge
Strategy and execution are originated by the ability of the leader on the sidelines. In college basketball, coaching has a greater effect on the outcome. Look for clear edges in the battle of the minds in addition to the battles on the court. Personnel can sometimes overwhelm any great game plan. But find the coach who does more with less and pit him against the coach who does less with more, and it results in a relatively equal talent matchup. That’s a formula for finding a winning betting play, assuming other factors (health, travel, overtime games) aren’t involved.
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SGA is H-O-T
There are many reasons why Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the leading candidate to be the NBA’s Most Valuable Player. For one, his Oklahoma City Thunder hold the best record in the West — eight games clear of second-seeded Memphis. He also averages more than 32 points per game. Lately, his scoring has been remarkably consistent. He entered the final game prior to the All-Star break on a impressive run.
That streak came *this* close to continuing. Not only did the Thunder fall to the Minnesota Timberwolves on Thursday, but SGA had 24 points. I guess we call that an “off” night.