Issue #36: Bets on Ice
Did the recent hockey event pique your interest? Either way, follow along to wager wiser on the NHL
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Stay Centered on NHL Betting Knowledge
The NHL has grown in popularity in betting circles as more and more player props have become available. While betting the moneylines and totals was more for sharps and hardcore bettors, now casual players discover value with player props.
The center is a key role on the ice, and many of the league’s biggest offensive stars play that position. So it’s no surprise they are a popular choice.
Ice Time Dominance
Time On Ice will give you an initial indication of opportunity. The more they play, the more they have a chance to record shots, points, goals or other statistics.
While time on ice might seem rudimentary, you need to be thinking about overs on players who get the time and unders for those who don’t. Of course, there are times when this statistic can be misleading. Defensemen, for instance, spend more time out there than forwards.
When looking to bet the over on a specific center, perhaps do so on a top-tier one getting a ton of opportunities. A player that gets minutes with the top six forwards, then also gets power play time and maybe shorthanded minutes too is someone you want to consider.
If you want to bet the under on a player, you can check to see if their minutes have decreased in the last few days or weeks.
Which Line Are They On?
This is somewhat tied to time on ice. The first line is usually what’s known as the top scoring one and coaches prefer to put their best player at each position there. Or they could put their best combination of players together. The line behind that for secondary scoring, followed by a checking line, and the fourth line.
You’re usually going to see players from the top scoring line play the most. You’ll also find out those players are usually going to get a tremendous amount of scoring opportunities due to the talent they’re playing with. It’s not just time on the ice; it’s who that time is spent with.
A center like Edmonton’s Connor McDavid is going to boost everybody else’s scoring chances when he’s playing. If you bet on someone who spends a ton of time alongside him, chances are that you can hit the over since McDavid himself registers a ton of points. Just having another player helping him get the puck could get their own points up.
Knowing a player’s line could make it easy to bet the under as well, with a fourth-line center not getting much time on the ice, nor are they getting many chances to score. These players could be sent in for a change of pace, for physicality, for defense, or for garbage time. It’s going to be different each game, but understanding when they enter the game, how much time they’re out there for, and how much they can attack the net would be helpful.
Opponent Shots Allowed
Evaluating a player’s opponent can be just as important as anything else. A bad team could allow for a far better scoring opportunity than a stellar defensive group. Checking out the opposing goaltender is an easy place to start. If the opposing goalie hasn’t performed well of late, then betting the over on a top-liner could be a good idea.
Shots given up is another good statistic to get a determination of scoring opportunity. Some teams give up far more shots on the net than others. That tends to lead to more goals allowed. When a team gives up a ton of shots, betting the over can seem very enticing.
Power Play Prominence
If a player is always out there when his team gets a power play, then there will be minutes at a time when he is on the attack. The power play gives a team a one-man advantage for two/five minutes. Those time frames are usually spent with one team relentlessly attacking the net, taking shot after shot. Meanwhile, the defending power play unit continues to clear the puck and kill time.
Normally, you’ll see star players out there to take advantage of power plays, though there are multiple lines for this. If you’re betting on a center’s props, then taking a look at their time out on the power play can be a great idea. Going back to McDavid, he’s somebody that the Edmonton Oilers will want on the ice whenever they have a one-man advantage. He’s practically already an advantage with even skaters, so putting him out there to just attack for a minute or so with less defense is a great opportunity. Not just for himself, but for the other players on the line with him.
Opponents’ Penalty Kill
Just because a team keeps getting power plays, doesn’t always mean that they’re going to capitalize. They might just be going up against the best penalty kill unit in the NHL, which usually doesn’t give up free points just because they’re a man down.
Part of what makes an opponent’s penalty kill so great is their frequency of getting penalties. The Ottawa Senators were penalized 4.74 times per game in 2022-23, and it resulted in them giving up more goals on the power play than they would have liked to give up. A team that was penalized far fewer would be giving up fewer goals, as they’d be more disciplined. A more disciplined team can result in better penalty kill units as well when they eventually face a penalty.
When it comes to getting a good matchup in opposing penalty kill, you are looking for a team that gets penalized an awful lot, and one that can’t defend the power play once they fall into it. A team that struggles to clear the puck, defend the net, or block off scoring lanes.
If you’re looking to bet on a center prop, then finding out what type of penalty kill they’re facing could strengthen their chances of scoring.
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