Issue #37: Custom Fitting
Thanks to alternate lines and Outlier's new line building tool, there are several ways to tailor bets to your preference
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Why Slight Adjustments Can Lead to Big Wins
The number you’re given is not necessarily the number you have to take.
Unsure about a team at -7.5? Scale it back to -4.5 for insurance. Feel especially confident in a player’s point total? Bump it up and add value.
Alternate lines are a modification of what the sportsbooks provide as standard for spreads, totals, and player props. Bettors can adjust these numbers based on their insights and preferences. This gives them a strategic edge when thinking about different game outcomes.
They either improve odds or entail additional risk — but with the potential for a higher reward. They exist in all sports, but we’ll focus primarily on the NBA for this exercise.
Alternate spreads let you bet on a team winning by different points than the standard line. For example, in Tuesday’s Bucks-Rockets game, you can remove the hook on Houston at -3.5.
Alternate lines on player props might include betting on a player to score more or fewer points, assists, rebounds or a combination of them. Take, for instance, what was offered for LeBron James against the Mavericks.
Looking at the Last 10 bar graph, he not only has exceeded the 32.5 number provided on FanDuel seven times, he’s gone past 40 four times. And in two of the games in which he had 33 or fewer, he came very close to that number. Shopping around for other lines has some merit to it. Going up to 34.5 creates a “plus money” situation should you be successful, while increasing to 39.5 goes for +290.
Outlier’s new Custom Line Builder feature, available on iOS, allows you to set the line however you want, and analyze the hit rate and supporting stats. It also provides alternate line odds shopping, where we surface the best available alt line odds for all available markets.
BetMGM’s standard rebound line for Giannis Antetokounmpo versus Houston is 11.5 at +105 for the over. With the Custom Line Builder, scaling that up to 12.5 will not only show the new best odds (+135 on DraftKings) but will also update the hit rate chart. Putting it at over 10.5, which he has exceeded in all but two of the previous ten games, is at -185 on DraftKings.
Using alternate lines in NBA games or other sports can be a smart strategy. However, it also comes with more risk and reward. This is especially true when the lines are lowered to increase the payout. To make smart bets on alternate lines, you need to understand team dynamics, player performances, matchups, and trends.
Outlier helps you compare alternate lines from different sportsbooks. Beyond the Custom Line Builder, the platform helps you explore data on teams and players. It gives insights into past performances and spots value in matchups. This way, you can make smarter decisions.
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In the News
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