Playoff Odds for the Thriving & Struggling, Plus the Fleeting Thrill of Survival
Public feelings about early NFL success stories that may be deceiving and broken teams that can be fixed. Also, an upset-heavy start has wrecked havoc on a popular annual contest.
Welcome back to Edition #4 of the newly refreshed UndersClub community, brought to you by Outlier.
The UndersClub is the newsletter where we share data-backed analysis and editorial, special guest insights, and sneak peaks into the future of data driven sports betting.
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False Hope? Reason to Believe? Comparing Odds & Futures for the NFL’s Best and Worst
Not all 3-0 teams are viewed the same — both in the present and in their projections. Replace “3-0” with “0-3” and the sentiment is similar. In other words, appearance can be misleading for sportsbooks and bettors alike.
The Minnesota Vikings — perhaps the most surprising of the unbeatens — has chalked up convincing victories against the defending NFC champs and last year’s kings of the AFC South.
Those wins over San Francisco and Houston have upped the Vikes’ win total to 10.5 on most sites — yet the public hasn’t been completely convinced. Caesars has the under at -150 odds. With Detroit looking strong and a Green Bay team anticipating Jordan Love’s return behind center, that poses a potentially tough road for Minnesota to take the division. DraftKings has the Vikings at +195 to end up on top of the NFC North after starting at +400.
Match that outlook with Pittsburgh. It’s win total is now 9.5 pretty much across the board with the over at -134 on BetRivers, as many have sided on the Steelers’ strong defense and favorable schedule. Their -124 line on FanDuel to get to the playoffs is slightly worse than the Vikings (-196). Their odds to finish first in the division have taken a sharp turn upward from +1200 to +230. That’s still behind 1-2 Baltimore at +130.
Just as an overwhelming percentage of teams who start 3-0 eventually get to the postseason, the cards are stacked against clubs who come out of the gate at 0-3.
The Bengals are among a trio who face this daunting task following Monday night’s takedown by Washington. Climbing out of an early season hole is nothing new to Cincinnati. That recent history plus proven players like Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and the talent on the roster keep their chances of recovering as decent relative to the other winless clubs. FanDuel has them at +122 for getting to the playoffs and +340 to win the North.
The rest of the winless bunch resides the AFC South. Betting on Jacksonville to be one of the seven AFC participants is +300 on DraftKings. If you were so bold to put money on the Tennessee Titans to play more than 17 games, you can get it at +750 on most major sportsbooks. Those aren’t the longest odds, however. Even after picking up victories Sunday, hopes for Panthers (+900) and Giants (+800) are tempered at best.
With an abundance of key players out on both sides, San Francisco’s two-game skid had a natural effect on their January outlook. But the books still like the Niners to regain their form, at -210 to make the playoffs and a +110 choice to win the division on FanDuel. Consequently, the 3-0 Seahawks are +190 to take the NFC West. The factors there may be quality of the teams they’ve beaten (Denver, New England, and Miami) coupled with a defense that’s lost key personnel.
Both of Arizona’s defeats have come to tough opponents — on the road against Buffalo and at home to Detroit. Taking the Cardinals to make the playoffs on BetRivers at +285 would yield a much higher return on investment than taking a Cowboys team (-107) with the same record. Early upheaval in the NFC West apparently notwithstanding, Arizona is a distant third (+750 on DraftKings) to be division champs.
Inside the Shallow Waters of a Vegas Survivor Pool
Picking the most likely winner each week in 2024 has felt more like sticking your hands in a shark tank. A result of underdogs thriving early in the NFL season is the substantial elimination of contestants.
Consequently, those who have gone unscathed so far are finding less competition than usual. And at Circa, the Las Vegas-based sportsbook running their own version of this contest, a lucky champion is poised to really cash in.
Like most survivor pools, Circa’s rules state a team can be selected once per each entry during. Unlike most survivor pools, the costs per submission is a mere $1,000.
Reward outweighed risk for plenty, as a flurry of entries resulted in a $14,266,000 winner-take-all prize.
The New England Patriots pulled off the Week 1 stunner and wiped out more than 34% of entries who rode with Cincinnati. The attrition level only heightened in Week 2. According to Circa, over 4,800 of the 8,600-plus remaining entries were eliminated — including 2,304 who chose the Ravens, 859 on the Lions, and 785 with the Eagles. So only 3,877 made it beyond Week 2 — although that’s the most Circa had at that point besides last year (5,924).
Thanks to the Commanders, Giants, and Broncos pulling off their respective Week 3 upsets, fewer than 700 are still standing.
The rate of extinction as compared to previous years reflects that of all competitions. According to a September 17 tweet, 2,985 Circa entries made it through Week 2 in 2021 and the five eventual winners ran the table by winning all 20 weeks.
The message to anyone left: choose wisely.
PrizePicks NFL Trends. A Look Under the Hood.
Last week we looked at an aggregate of all Outlier users to highlight some key trends through the first two weeks of NFL season.
Now with Week 3 in the books and more than 1.2 Million bets researched we can start chopping up the data.
Interested in how PrizePicks users have been spending their time this September? Keep reading.
All of the data below is based on aggregated Outlier user data.
So far this September:
1,194,601 bets were sent to sportsbooks or DFS apps through Outlier
9.4% of them (111,939) were for PrizePicks.
67.5% of individual legs for PrizePicks slips were Overs.
This is actually slightly smaller share of the pie compared to ALL sportsbooks and apps combined (79.3%)
The following Prop Markets all captured greater than 10% of bets researched on PrizePicks.
Touchdowns - 16.9%
Fantasy Score - 13.9%
Receiving Yards - 11.5%
Receptions - 10.2%
This tightly aligns with FanDuel’s most popular NFL markets. Though Fantasy Score is replaced by Rushing Yards to round out the Top 4.
*Note: This data is based off of betslip checkouts in Outlier. If someone researched a play but did not send it to their sportsbook, that data is not included here.
Don’t Forget Public Betting Splits
Outlier charts Line Movement and Public Bet percentage for every single available betting market.
If you're interested in understanding how the sportsbooks originally priced a particular bet and how the public has reacted to price movements, and/or what the market dynamics looks like at current, learn more here.
Creator Corner: The Final Round
Jordan from The Final Round has built a HUGE following in the year by sticking to two principles: (1) All of his plays are based on data analysis, and (2) No charging for picks anywhere in his community.
In addition to producing videos, he’s also super engaged and willing to help anyone in the comment section or his Discord community. Give him a follow today.
In the News
Someone Put How Much on the Chiefs?! — Sunday’s night’s game in Atlanta had major implications for one bettor on Caesars who took Kansas City on the moneyline.
Underdog Fantasy Revamped in Kansas — The daily fantasy brand is returning to the Sunflower State with an updated peer-to-peer business model.
ESPNBet Gets Green Light in Big Apple — On Monday, the New York State Gaming Commission cleared the way for Penn Entertainment to introduce ESPN Bet to the Empire State.