The Public Has Spoken: Bettors Making their Voices Heard
Several NFL teams through the first half of the season have had support both for and against. Plus, the race toward the next college hoops champ is on.
Welcome back to Edition #10 of the newly refreshed UndersClub community, brought to you by Outlier.
The UndersClub is the newsletter where we share data-backed analysis and editorial, special guest insights, and sneak peaks into the future of data driven sports betting.
This newsletter will always be free, and 100% our opinion. If you care to use Outlier to do your own research, you can start a free 7 day trial here.
Who is Earning the NFL’s Popular Vote?
Who the public likes before a game doesn’t necessarily equate to who it loves after. No team is universally backed every game against the spread. Not even the unbeaten Kansas City Chiefs, who in Week 5 was bet on by 41 percent of the public as five-point favorites going up against the New Orleans Saints.
However, several get the attention of the bettors — for better or worse.
Baltimore is enticing for many reasons. They’re very good, first and foremost, and they’re great at putting up points. The Ravens have received at least 50 percent of the public in all but one game — when they hosted Buffalo on a Sunday night in Week 4 as 2.5-point favorites. Even a 9.5-point line in their favor this past Sunday against the Denver Broncos didn’t deter the masses. And with a 41-10 score, that majority benefited without a sweat.
Buffalo got 70 percent of the bets that evening in what turned out to be a blowout loss to the Ravens. The Bills have lured many to their side in recent weeks thanks to an MVP candidate behind center. It wasn’t so convincing early. Perhaps it was the 6.5 points, but 63 percent liked the Cardinals in the opener and Arizona covered. The 4.5 points, too, wasn’t enough to take people away from the Jaguars — who got 54 percent.
Week 5 in Houston was where things swung. Underdogs by 1.5 points, 72 percent of bettors took Buffalo. They’ve been darlings ever since — getting more than two-third of the public over the past four weeks. Looking ahead to Week 10 at Indianapolis, the Bills are already being backed by more than 90% as of Tuesday morning.
It was in upstate New York for the season opener when the Arizona Cardinals received the strongest support. Most of their games so far have been more or less earned a split opinion. Week 3 at home versus Detroit: 55-45 for the Cards. Week 4 at home against the Commanders: 52-48 for Washington. The next week at San Francisco was 55-45 in favor of the Niners. Not many believed in Arizona carrying 1.5 points in its home contest with the Bears. But after a blowout gave the Cardinals a third straight win, believers will certainly emerge.
It’s hard to find many doubters of the Detroit Lions. Interestingly, they were on the short end of the public in each of their first four games — perhaps a product of inflated lines. But going into Lambeau Field for its first outdoor contest as a 2.5-point favorite showed how strongly bettors believe in Detroit. The Lions were sided by 58 on the spread and 80 on the moneyline.
And now for the team everyone loves to bet against…the Carolina Panthers, who got no love despite being a 7.5-point underdog on DraftKings. Only 29 percent of the pubic thought they would at least get within that margin against a 2-6 Saints team and just 15 percent thought they’d actually win. Lo and behold, the minority looked pretty smart after Carolina’s 23-22 upset.
After most leaned toward the Panthers in Week 1’s first meeting with New Orleans (to much less success), bettors scurried far, far away — never getting more than 42 percent despite some being given plenty of points. Even as a +10.5-point underdog in Washington on October 20, only 18 percent believed they could cover.
Betting Hero VIP Text Service:
Take advantage of this special offer from our friends at BettingHero and get daily betting insights and stats sent straight to your phone!
Need extra info to build your bets? Just text them, and a betting expert will reply instantly and handle the research for you.
Signing up is free and takes less than 10 seconds. Sign up today!
*Note: Yes, it’s actually a real person you are interacting with, not AI. And no, we were not paid for this message. We just wanted to feature a cool new (and free) product.
Time for the College Basketball Primaries
The road to March Madness begins in early November. Monday marked the official tip-off for college hoops. With all the significant roster changes that come with each season, here’s a brief glance at which teams and players sportsbooks are spotlighting.
National Champion: Vying for a men’s three-peat is UConn. They are the consensus choice to win it all again — despite losing four of five starters from last year. However, the nature of the sport and the unpredictability that comes with it gives the Huskies upwards of +1000 odds on FanDuel. Duke and Kansas both share that number with Alabama (+1000 on DraftKings) and Houston (+1500) are strong contenders too.
On the women’s side, defending champion South Carolina is the favorite at +155 on FanDuel. The two teams that trail Dawn Staley’s Gamecocks feature two programs led by star talent. With Caitlin Clark gone to the pros, the title of best player is up for grabs — mainly between USC’s Juju Watkins and UConn’s Paige Beuckers (see below for more on this pair).
Conference Champion: This is where the number shrinks for UConn. To win the men’s Big East, Dan Hurley’s team on DraftKings is +130 and +110 on BetRivers. There’s a significant gap from Duke and UNC and the rest of the ACC field. The Blue Devils are +125 on DraftKings while the Tar Heels are +360. Next best is Wake Forest at +1000. Gonzaga seems to be penciled in as a West Coast Conference winner with -350 odds. The Bulldogs, who are +1700 to win the title, return Ryan Nembhard and Graham Ike, who averaged a team-high 16.5 points and 7.4 rebounds per game. Women’s conference winners have not been made available yet.
Player of the Year: While Cooper Flagg is the presumed No. 1 pick in the 2025 NBA Draft, the Wooden Award is no certainty according to the books. FanDuel has him at the top with +500 odds, but returning Alabama guard Mark Sears is viable at +600 and so is Hunter Dickinson of Kansas and R.J. Davis of North Carolina.
It’s even more competitive for the women’s winner. Bueckers and Watkins share +140 odds on FanDuel — far and away the favorites as the next closest is South Carolina’s MiLaysa Fulwiley at +1500.
Creator Corner: Guy Boston Sports
Learn how to use Outlier from sports betting pros at the Guy Boston network.
In this short video Tasos reveals his process and strategy for finding winning NFL player props.
It's a concise step-by-step walkthrough of exactly what he looks for and how to find the information he needs to win!
In the News
BetMGM’s “Second Chance” TD Scorer Promo Comes Through — The sportsbook has been running a season-long promotion so that any first-time touchdown bet winds up being the second TD, the bettor gets their stake back. DeAndre Hopkins fulfilled this on Monday night.
PENN Entertainment Launches Account Linking — This will allow customers to track sports and live bets through any ESPN platform and take advantage of more personalized content.
Virginia Sportsbooks See September Boost — Sports betting operators in the commonwealth brought in $71.5 million in gross revenue on a handle of over $622 million.
Love reading these weekly. Great insights.