Tricks & Treats: Big Spreads and Same Game Parlays
Separation of good and bad teams was reflected in Week 8 lines. Plus, the rise of the same game parlay has been fun for bettors and profitable for sportsbooks.
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How Does a Large Pack of Week 8 ‘Dogs Play?
We’ve documented before how well longshots have fared early in the season. The biggest underdog in each of the first three weeks — Patriots, Raiders, and Commanders — each won outright. Underdogs of seven or more points started the season 4-0 straight up. Those large spreads were few and far between, but as the books sense the disparity between the haves and the have nots, we see it in the lines. Last week, there were six games featuring spreads of a touchdown or greater and the underdogs held their own again — with a few more surprises in there as well.
Titans at Lions (-12.5): This large number might have scared off many. But 88 percent of bets per Outlier took Detroit and gave the points. The Lions rewarded the majority with 35 first-half points and over half a hundred for the game in a 52-14 rout.
Ravens (-7.5) at Browns: Divisional matchups tends to remain close, no matter how good or bad the teams appear. The Browns not only stayed in, but held the lead for most of it. A late touchdown on a final stop of Baltimore wrapped up a 29-24 Cleveland win with Jameis Winston behind center.
Jets (-7) at Patriots: Even as New York scored a go-ahead with 2:57 remaining, the 22-17 score was still pleasing to the small number going with New England against the spread. The Patriots then proceeded to make the even smaller number of people who went with them on the moneyline and hand the Jets a fifth straight defeat.
Saints at Chargers (-7): This one didn’t have nearly the amount of one-sided betting on the favorite, as Los Angeles garnered just 54 percent. The Chargers were covering from the midway point of the third quarter on thanks to two touchdowns and the defense keeping New Orleans under 10 points.
Chiefs (-8.5) at Raiders: The old “what stays in Vegas…” tagline didn’t apply to Kansas City winning against the spread. A 27-13 lead became 27-20 with a Gardner Minchew scoring pass to DJ Turner at the 2:03 mark of the four quarter and 84 percent were ruined by the dreaded backdoor cover.
Panthers at Broncos (-10.5): Denver left little doubt once it took a 21-7 lead into halftime. Carolina mustered a touchdown in the final minute to narrow the gap to 14, but the Broncos defense was never letting the Panthers get very close.
The look ahead lines for Week 9 on FanDuel offer more opportunities for longshots — with five games featuring spreads of seven points or higher: New Orleans favored by a touchdown at Carolina, the Ravens a 9.5-point pick over the Broncos, Cincinnati a 7.5-point favorite hosting the Raiders, Philadelphia at -7 against the Jaguars, and Kansas City as a 9.5-point home favorite against Tampa Bay.
NBA Betting Guide: What’s New for 2024?
This walkthrough will give you everything you need to know to get started betting on the NBA in Outlier this season. Watch as Evan walks you through what's new on the app, and how to use its most important features.
Same Game Parlays have Bettors Enticed
The thought of high risks yielding high rewards is too much to pass up. Many sportsbooks have seen the proliferation of same-game parlays in only a short period of time. And they have benefitted financially from it.
According to an ESPN article from last year, Super Bowl LVI, 31% of bets placed at BetRivers, Barstool, and a compilation of other U.S. sportsbooks prior to the kick-off were same-game parlays. PointsBet saw 22% of the them.
While the idea of combining multiple bets into one has been part of the American sports betting landscape for years. But those parlays were required to include seprate bets from different games. That same ESPN article noted that sportsbooks refused to accept same-game parlays for decades — afraid that that bettors would ultimately benefit too much.
That, of course, has all changed.
At the Global Gaming Expo (G2E) in Las Vegas held earlier this month, one presentation highlighted this recent boom.
While they are extremely unprofitable for bettors, they have proved to be incredibly popular. Consensus is that people see it as the sports equivalent of a gambling or lottery ticket, as opposed to trying to find an edge and beating the books.
As recently as 2017, the Nevada sportsbooks’ hold percentage (or the amount of money kept for every dollar wagered) was at 5%. In 2024, the nationwide sports betting hold is over 9%. FanDuel’s hold percentage on parlays is greater than 21%
What this shows is that same game parlays are the result of many changes within the industry — structural shifts such as more sports, better & faster data, mobile developments, and automation as well as changes in products like ease of cash out.
SGPs have introduced a math-obscured near-miss feature into sports betting — similar to what slot machines provide. It’s high-volatility, high-hold structure is ideal for group and social betting and it offers fans the chance to focus on multiple aspects of the game instead of just the result or one particular outcome.
In the News
“Sports Equinox” Made for Countless Betting Opportunities — Monday brought the rare instance of events in all four major U.S. sports. As expected, sportsbooks featured different offers to mark this occasion.
National Tight Ends Day was Also Payday — The honored position appropriately set an all-time record for receptions on Sunday and one Fan bettor took advantage with a six-figure payout on a $10 parlay.
PrizePicks to be Available in Missouri & Delaware — One of the country’s leading daily fantasy sports operators is expanding its reach with two new licenses.